Russia’s risky options beyond full Ukraine attack

Washington, Jan 29 (AP) Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be preparing to launch an invasion of Ukraine, with more than 100,000 troops positioned around the country.
Certainly, the US believes that’s the case and President Joe Biden has warned Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that an attack could come in February.
But Russia denies it’s preparing to invade and Putin’s intentions remain a mystery.
Russia, which is seeking a pledge that NATO won’t expand to include Ukraine, has options it could pursue short of a full-blown invasion, and other ways to lash out at the US and its allies. All of them carry varying degrees of risk, to Russia and the world.
A look at some of them:
SOMETHING SHORT OF A FULL-SCALE INVASION
In 2014, Russia seized the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine. That year it also started arming rebels in the eastern region known as the Donbas, starting a low-boiling conflict that has killed more than 14,000 people.
Many Russia watchers speculate that the recent buildup of Russian troops and naval forces is the next chapter in a larger effort to chip away at Ukraine, perhaps taking advantage as the US and its allies in Europe are distracted by COVID-19 and other issues.
Possible scenarios include providing additional support to the Russia-backed rebels or launching a limited invasion, just enough to destabilise Zelenskyy and usher in a pro-Kremlin leader.
Stopping short of a full-scale invasion would give Russia more time to get more forces in place and test the commitment of the US and its allies to the punishing sanctions promised by Biden, says retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of US Army forces in Europe.
?He’s going to continue doing what he’s doing right now, continuing to apply maximum pressure on Ukraine and to try to destabilise the government to alarm people,? Hodges said. ?There’s a lot of capability in place to do more, should the opportunity present itself.?
That might still end up triggering sanctions that could damage the Russian economy and hurt Putin at home. There’s also the risk that a limited action isn’t enough to achieve the Russian president’s goal of undermining European security by rolling back, or at least halting, NATO expansion, says Dmitry Gorenburg, an analyst with CNA, a research organisation in Arlington, Virginia. ?I don’t think it gets him what he wants,? he said. ?It didn’t get them that before. So why now??